DIGITS YEAR END 2025 SCORECARD AND 2026 PREDICTIONS
Target 2025 in Review, 2026 in Sight: Dave’s Retail Media Scorecard and Predictions
DIGITS recaps its year-end webinar with predictions for Target, Roundel, paid search, BevAlc, THC, regional grocers, and AI in 2026.
What really happened at Target in 2025, and what should CPG brands expect in 2026? DIGITS Founder and CEO David Glaza and Chris Thron, VP of Target Retail Media, answered both questions in our latest year-end webinar. They graded last year’s predictions (eight correct, four still pending), analyzed Target’s strategic shifts, and rolled out twelve fresh predictions for 2026 across Target Circle, Roundel, paid search, beverage alcohol, THC beverages, regional grocers, and AI-driven discovery.
Retail media moves fast. Leadership changes, platform updates, new coupon standards, AI shopping assistants, and category shifts like THC beverages all reshape how brands compete for shopper attention and market share. DIGITS lives inside the Target ecosystem every day, managing Target Circle promotions, Roundel campaigns, paid search optimization, and 3P media for billions in annual retail sales. Our predictions come from campaign performance, earnings calls, vendor conversations, and platform behavior, not trend reports or analyst speculation.
Key Takeaways at a Glance
Dave graded 2025 predictions: eight correct, four still pending, including leadership changes, return-to-office mandates, Roundel growth, and AI shopping assistants
8112 universal coupons will finally hit Target in 2026, bringing better fraud control and flexible digital offer execution
Paid search at Target will grow at least 25% year over year as competitive conquesting and premium inventory expand
Target will launch its own AI chat or discovery experience inside the Target app
Vendors will push back on “Target handcuffs” that lock trade dollars into Roundel and category promotions
THC drinks will move closer to federal clarity and mainstream retail acceptance, not disappear
A major retailer will pilot alcohol onsite ads in 2026
“Zebra striping” (alternating alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages) will become normal consumer behavior
AEO (Agentic Experience Optimization or Answer Engine Optimization) will emerge as a new discipline inside large CPGs
What Did DIGITS Get Right in 2025?
Dave graded eight out of twelve 2025 predictions as correct. Notable wins included Target leadership changes with Michael Fiddelke announced as incoming CEO, return-to-office and organizational restructuring that impacted merchants and planning teams, Roundel growth with video formats emerging as core retail media assets, and AI agents reshaping digital discovery through Amazon Rufus, Walmart Sparky, and Target’s ChatGPT integration.
The “not yet” list included 8112 universal coupons at Target (which carries over to 2026), Roundel self-serve display at scale, meaningful fee reductions, and major merger activity involving Target.
What Are the Top Target Predictions for 2026?
8112 Universal Coupons Finally Hit Target
The digital coupon world is moving toward the 8112 universal coupon standard, promising better fraud control, cleaner redemption, and more flexible digital offer execution. Dave’s call: 2026 is the year Target formally moves into 8112. Expect more flexibility, more scale, and a very different coupon conversation in the next 12 to 24 months.
2026 Is the Year of Paid Search at Target
Dave predicts paid search investment at Target will grow at least 25% year over year. Roundel search has been growing steadily, Target is testing competitive conquesting (brands bidding on competitor terms), and the third slot on search results is now premium paid space. Chris’ take: this prediction might be conservative as DIGITS clients are already shifting more budget into Target search.
Target Launches Its Own AI Chat or Discovery Experience
Target already integrates with ChatGPT, and both Amazon and Walmart have launched AI shopping assistants. Dave predicts Target will roll out its own AI chat or discovery experience inside the Target app, potentially featuring natural language queries, guided basket building, or AI-powered recommendations using Target’s first-party data.
Brands need to ask: How does my product content show up when an AI model is the front door to discovery?
Vendors Start Pushing Back on Target Handcuffs
Dave’s phrase “Target handcuffs” refers to how vendor trade and shopper dollars are increasingly locked into Roundel managed service, category-level promotions, and digital accruals. In many categories, 80% to 90% of dollars are pre-committed, leaving almost no room for independent brand campaigns, 3P media, influencer programs, or test-and-learn channels that drive innovation and shopper growth.
The prediction: 2026 is the year vendors push harder for flexibility, and Target starts to listen.
Target Reasserts Merchandising Authority With Big Own Brand Moves
Dave predicts Target will announce the relaunch or restage of two or more billion-dollar owned brands, potentially in food, apparel, or home categories. For Target, bold merchant moves usually mean new branding and storytelling, reset categories and endcaps, and heavy promotional and media support.
Target Experiments With New Supply Chain Models for Non-Food
With distribution network pressure and visible in-stock issues, Dave predicts a non-food category at Target will pilot a meaningfully different distribution model in 2026. Scan-based trading and DSD models have long existed in categories like soda and chips. The question for vendors: Are you ready to support a different fulfillment or ownership model if Target asks?
What’s Changing in Alcohol, THC, and Beverage Innovation?
THC Drinks Move Closer to Federal Clarity, Not Disappearance
Hemp-derived THC beverages have grown incredibly fast, especially in markets like Minnesota. Despite recent federal noise, the more nuanced read is that lawmakers will tighten standards, not erase the category. Prediction: THC drinks end 2026 on a clearer path to national standards and mainstream retail, not gone.
A Major Retailer Opens the Door to Alcohol Onsite Ads
Today, alcohol onsite media is very limited due to compliance and tied-house concerns. Dave predicts at least one major retailer will meaningfully pilot alcohol onsite ads in 2026. When the door opens, it will open fast, so alcohol marketers should map out creative, targeting, compliance, and measurement strategies now.
NA Growth and Zebra Striping Become Normal
Dave introduced “zebra striping” as alternating between alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages in the same occasion (beer, NA beer, cocktail, sparkling water, repeat). Prediction: By the end of 2026, this mixed pattern will feel normal, not niche, with real implications for portfolio strategy, occasion-based targeting, and moderation messaging.
What Are the Bigger Industry Shifts Beyond Target?
Local Digital Grocery Wars Heat Up
Walmart is building more fulfillment centers, Amazon is pushing deeper into grocery delivery, and Target/Instacart’s moat is shrinking. Prediction: Pickup and fulfillment center-based grocery models keep growing, while at-home delivery growth slows and gets more expensive. Brands need to understand how digital grocery demand splits by pickup versus delivery, retailer versus marketplace, and loyalty versus guest checkout.
Programmatic Display Scales Across Regional and Mid-Tier Grocers
Prediction: In 2026, programmatic display takes a real step forward across regional and mid-tier grocers through unified pipes, AI-versioned creative, and more efficient Trade Desk-like platforms. DIGITS is already seeing movement here, and early movers will have a head start.
AEO Becomes the Next Big Acronym
AEO (Agentic Experience Optimization or AI Experience Optimization) will become real inside large CPGs as AI chatbots handle more shopping queries. These systems favor brands that publish clear, structured content, answer specific questions well, and invest in education and FAQs. By late 2026, large brands will build AI centers of excellence, report AI-driven traffic shifts, and realize that being under-optimized for AI is a real share risk.
What Should Brands Do With These Predictions?
Invest in Target Search Like It Matters: Structure budgets, reporting, and governance around it. If you’re not actively managing Target search weekly like Amazon or Walmart, you’re late.
Get Your Digital Shelf Ready for AI: Build better copy, FAQs, and education that’s helpful to AI models, not just humans.
Push for Flexibility in Target Budgets: Make the case for offsite media, tests, and 3P channels that reach shoppers outside the Target echo chamber.
Treat THC and NA as Serious Category Shifts: They will shape BevAlc portfolios for the next decade.
Watch Regional RMNs and Programmatic Tools: Scale is coming. Early movers will lock in learnings and better CPMs.
Start Talking About AEO Internally: Someone needs to own “how we show up in AI experiences” before competitors do.
Action Steps
Audit Your Target Search Investment: Compare current allocation against Amazon and Walmart spend
Review Product Content for AI Readiness: Evaluate whether PDPs and FAQs are structured for AI discovery
Map Your BevAlc and THC Strategy: Build a 2026 plan accounting for federal clarity and onsite ad opportunities
Schedule a Consultation with DIGITS: Discuss how these predictions impact your brand portfolio
Conclusion
The year ahead will test how quickly CPG brands can adapt to converging shifts in retail media, paid search, AI discovery, beverage innovation, and regional grocer capabilities. The brands that act on these predictions now will enter 2027 with stronger positioning, better ROI, and clearer competitive advantages.
Which prediction will shape your 2026 strategy?
Ready to translate these insights into action? Watch the full webinar recording and schedule a consultation with DIGITS to build your 2026 retail media plan.
About DIGITS Agency
DIGITS is an omnichannel retail media agency specializing in Target, regional grocers, and alcohol retail media. As a Target Managed Services partner and Roundel Media Studio Certified agency, DIGITS helps CPG brands navigate retail media with strategic planning, hands-on campaign management, and proprietary analytics. Learn more at www.digitsagency.com.
Dave Glaza, Founder & CEO of DIGITS, remains committed to bringing digital capabilities to physical stores!
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/
